Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data

The mean figure of per-day murders each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government data. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder figures could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the least number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military efforts to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety analysts warned that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it may mask days when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.