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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.