Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position & Settled Debates
In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
